(Rightallegiance.com) – Former President Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the Arizona presidential contest, as Harris loses support among key demographics like women, Hispanics, and young voters. A recent Fox News poll conducted among likely voters shows Trump leading Harris by 3 percentage points in both a two-way race (51%-48%) and when third-party candidates are included (50%-47%), with a 3% share going to other candidates.
The poll highlights a shift from August when Harris had a slim lead of 1 point. The loss in her support is attributed to dwindling enthusiasm from young voters, women, and Hispanics. Among Hispanic voters, Harris’ previous 18-point advantage has shrunk to just 11 points. Similarly, her lead among women has dropped from 14 points to 8, and what was once a 13-point lead among voters under 30 has now reversed into a 12-point deficit—a remarkable 25-point swing.
Trump maintains strong support among Whites without a college degree, rural voters, and independents. He also leads narrowly among suburban voters, with suburban men backing him more than suburban women favor Harris. Interestingly, Trump also benefits from more of his 2020 voters sticking with him than Biden’s 2020 voters supporting Harris.
In contrast, Harris draws significant backing from voters aged 65 and over, those with a college degree, and urban residents. She still holds majority support among women and Hispanics. Furthermore, about one-quarter of non-MAGA Republicans are backing Harris over Trump.
The poll reveals Trump’s lead among new voters (51%-46%), defined as those who haven’t participated in the last four elections. According to Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who helps conduct the Fox News poll, “Arizona is looking tougher for Harris than a month ago. If young voters and Hispanics don’t make a U-turn, it’s hard to see how she walks away with a win.”
When it comes to key issues, Trump leads Harris by 15 points on immigration and 8 points on the economy, although these leads have decreased since June. He also edges Harris by 7 points on making the country safer. On other matters, such as protecting democracy and helping the middle class, the candidates are closely matched, with Harris having slight advantages.
Harris maintains a significant lead over Trump on the issue of abortion, though her 22-point lead last month has narrowed to 15 points. The poll also shows that over 70% of Arizona voters support the state’s proposed constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights, including two-thirds of independents and half of Republicans.
Personal favorability ratings are also a mixed bag for both candidates. Harris has a net negative rating of 3 points, with 48% favorable and 51% unfavorable, while Trump’s are slightly worse at 47% favorable and 52% unfavorable. Vice-presidential candidates, including Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator JD Vance, also have lukewarm favorability ratings, with Vance particularly struggling at a 7-point deficit.
In Arizona’s Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake by a significant margin of over 10 points, with women playing a pivotal role in his lead. Gallego also garners strong support from independents and a notable portion of Republicans. However, some Gallego supporters split their ticket, favoring Trump in the presidential race, with independents 16 points more likely to support Gallego than Harris.
Arizona remains a battleground state, with a volatile electorate that could swing in either direction. Trump won Arizona by 3.5 points in 2016, while Biden narrowly flipped the state in 2020 by less than half a percentage point. Harris and her campaign face a tough challenge to hold onto key demographic groups that have shifted toward Trump.