(Rightallegiance.com) – Vice President Kamala Harris has made significant strides in the presidential race, now leading former President Donald Trump by a margin of 51% to 48%, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll. This four-point improvement comes just two weeks after she entered the race, following President Joe Biden’s decision to step down.
Harris also holds a three-point lead (48%-45%) when third-party candidates are included. Her rise is largely supported by Black voters, white women with college degrees, and politically independent women, with significant gains in suburban areas and among white voters overall.
On economic issues, Harris has managed to avoid the negative perceptions that plagued Biden. While Trump still holds a slight edge on the economy (51%-48%), the gap has narrowed from a nine-point lead over Biden in June. Harris is also improving on immigration, though Trump remains more trusted by a margin of 52%-46%. Harris’ strongest issue is handling abortion rights, where she leads by 15 points.
The poll, conducted from Thursday to Sunday before Harris announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, interviewed 1,613 adults via cellphone, landline, and online research panels in English and Spanish. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.
Harris’ gains are particularly pronounced among certain demographics, leading to improved standings in the suburbs and with white voters. There is a notable 22-point gender gap; Harris leads among women by 13 points (55%-42%) but trails among men by nine points (54%-45%). These figures are similar to the results of the 2020 election, according to exit polls.
Black voters have shown significant support for Harris, increasing her lead over Trump from 23 points to 54 points. This shift indicates that Harris is nearing the level of support Democrats typically need from Black voters. Some Black voters who were considering Trump have shifted away, with his support dropping by 10 points among this group.
Harris has also gained ground with independents, now leading Trump by nine points (53%-44%), a dramatic turnaround from being down 14 points last month. This is a significant improvement compared to Biden’s performance with independents, where he trailed Trump by almost 20 points in early July.
Among white voters overall, Harris has increased her support from 40% to 46%, a level not seen for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. This improvement is largely driven by college-educated white women, two-thirds of whom now support Harris, a much higher percentage than Biden received in 2020.
Harris is also performing well with older voters, leading Trump by 11 points among Baby Boomers (55%-44%). Additionally, Latino voters have increasingly supported Harris, with 58% now indicating they would vote for her, up from 51% last month. However, this is still below the 65% Biden received in 2020.
One area where Harris needs to improve is with voters under 45. Currently, she is tied with Trump among this group, while Biden won them by 14 points in 2020. Despite this, Harris retains more support from younger voters when third-party candidates are introduced, unlike Biden, who saw significant drop-offs with Gen Z and Millennial voters.
Harris’ entry into the race has energized core Democratic voter groups, with Black, Latino, and younger voters showing increased enthusiasm. The percentage of Black voters, Latinos, and Gen Z/Millennials who say they are definitely voting has jumped to 81%, 84%, and 80%, respectively, from much lower levels in July.
Third-party candidates are seeing their lowest support levels since Marist began polling in April. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent, is now at just 5%, with other third-party candidates polling at or below 1%.
Public perception of who will win the election has also shifted. Last month, respondents believed Trump would beat Biden by 20 points (59%-39%). Now, the race is seen as a tie (48%-48%). Independents have notably flipped, with 52% now believing Harris will win, compared to 58% who previously thought Trump would.
While only 47% of respondents are satisfied with their choices, this is an improvement from June when 52% were dissatisfied. Trustworthiness is seen as the most important quality for a president among Democrats and independents, while Republicans prioritize a “strong leader.”
The election remains close, not just for the presidency but also for control of Congress. Forty-seven percent want Democrats to control Congress, while 45% prefer Republicans. This two-point advantage for Democrats is unchanged from June. Historical trends suggest Democrats need a wider margin to make significant gains, as seen in previous election cycles.
President Biden’s approval rating has also seen a boost since he dropped out of the race, now standing at 46%, the highest since February 2023 and up five points from last month.