(Rightallegiance.com) – With the November election looming, new polling data shows Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump among Hispanic voters in Arizona and Nevada, two critical battleground states in the southwest. According to a recent Suffolk University/USA Today poll, Harris holds a significant lead, but Trump has made gains with younger male Hispanic voters compared to 2020.
The survey reveals that in Arizona, Harris leads Trump by 57% to 38% among Hispanic voters, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver barely registering support. Three percent of voters remain undecided. In 2020, 55% of these voters cast their ballots for President Biden, while a third backed Trump. In neighboring Nevada, the figures are similar, with Harris leading 56% to 40%, and just over 1% of support for Independent American Party candidate Joel Skousen. Once again, 2% of voters remain undecided, and the 2020 voting pattern mirrored that of Arizona, with 56% supporting Biden and 33% choosing Trump.
However, Harris has not yet matched Biden’s 24-26 point advantage with Hispanic voters in both states from the 2020 election. David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, highlighted the reason for this shortfall: “This Democratic shortfall is largely due to young Hispanic men.”
Indeed, Trump appears to be attracting a larger share of the younger Hispanic male demographic. In Nevada, Trump leads Harris 53% to 40% among Hispanic men aged 18-34 and by a similar margin, 53% to 39%, among those aged 35-49. In Arizona, the figures are slightly different but still in Trump’s favor, with him leading 51% to 39% among Hispanic men aged 18-34 and by 57% to 37% among Hispanic men aged 35-49.
Economic issues and immigration remain top concerns for Hispanic voters in both states. Additionally, referendums in Arizona and Nevada will allow voters to weigh in on protecting access to abortion, and the polls show broad support for these measures. Both states are part of a larger group of battlegrounds, including Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, that saw razor-thin margins in 2020 and will be decisive again in the 2024 race for the White House.
Despite Harris’ overall lead, the latest surveys show that the 2024 election in these critical states is a toss-up, with both candidates performing within the margin of error.
The Suffolk University/USA Today polls were conducted between Sept. 27 and Oct. 2, with live interviews of 500 self-identified Hispanic voters in both Arizona and Nevada. The overall margin of error for the results is 4.4 percentage points.